I have said that the number of active sex buyers in Sweden increased between 1996 and 2008. There were surveys before and after the introduction of the law in 1999 that criminalized men who pay for sex. After 2008 there was a drop, which I put down to the financial crisis of 2008. After then men would have less disposable income.
I still believe this could be true. The way to test this theory would be to see if the drop in the number of active sex buyers happened in Denmark too. Norway introduced the sex-buyers law a few years later than Sweden but Denmark didn't. I have looked for this information and not been able to find it. It may not exist.
Update: It looks as if there is evidence for a drop in numbers of active sex buyers in Denmark after the financial crisis. "Sex work is not rapidly growing in Denmark; there was dramatic growth in the industry from 1970 to 2000, but after 2000 there was stagnation, then a drop after 2007 due to the financial crisis." From this page.
Denmark and Norway are regarded as comparable countries to Sweden. However, I see no reason why Britain should not be used as a comparable country. Or other north west European countries. I can't find information on this though.
It could be that when people are short of money the amount of prostitution decreases in countries with a generous welfare system but increases in a country with a poor welfare system. Men will be less willing to spend money on non-necessities but women will be more desperate to get money. With good welfare women can get by on benefits or casual labour.
So I still think that the Nordic model does not work because in the first ten years there was an increase in the number of active sex buyers from 1.3% to 1.8%. Then that proportion dropped - but it had nothing to do with the 1999 law. There is another possibility though.
In 2008 the Swedish government created their Action Plan. More money was given to the police, there was police training, and increased police activity. Arrests and convictions shot up in 2009 and especially 2010. It's almost as if they looked at the results of the 2008 survey, saw that it wasn't working, and decided to do something about it.
Arrests and convictions of men that is. They don't tell us about women. I would imagine that the number of arrests and convictions of women shot up in 2010. Perhaps we'll never know.
If that's true though, why are they so secretive about it? Why would they not admit that this is what happened? Perhaps they thought that the best propaganda is to say the Nordic model always works and will work in your country too if you adopt it.
The alternative is to say that you will have to spend millions and millions, devote large numbers of police officers and perhaps use invasive surveillance techniques that are not yet available in most democracies. They really did spend a lot more money on it - and at a time of financial crisis.
The amount of prostitution dropped in Denmark as well as Sweden. So they can't claim that their law and it's enforcement reduced prostitution, neither after 1999 nor after 2008.
And they didn't spend much on helping women to exit. Arresting them, yes. But not helping them.
But what are the results? Before the new law the proportion of Swedish men who pay for sex (active sex buyers) was 1.3%. In 2014, the year of the most recent survey, it was 0.8%. That means that they haven't even reduced it by half. More like two fifths. That's not going to redeem the honour and dignity of Swedish women.
If anyone tells you that the 0.8% figure is the lowest in Europe, that is false. Sylvia Walby put that in her report and it's been copied ever since. She said she got it from the Mujaj and Netscher report but it isn't there in their report.
They thought that they were going to get rid of it. They said that the presence of prostitution in society degrades the status of all women.
There are people who will tell you it went from 13% to 8% to 0.8% but they are liars. They are mixing up two sets of statistics. The drop of 13% to 8% is not for men who pay for sex, it is for something different and it went back up to more than 10% before dropping again. Now it is back to 10% according to Sexual and reproductive health and rights in Sweden 2017. If you want to see all the figures see the 2015 study by Mujaj and Netscher called Lansstyrelsen.
The number of arrests increased in 2010 by a lot and stayed high. It had something to do with a local case of organized pimping in Jamtland in northern Sweden but not much. In 2011 the government increased the maximum penalty for purchasing sex from six months to one year's imprisonment.
Did this have an effect? As far as I can tell no men have been imprisoned in Sweden for paying for sex. Only fines have been applied. A Supreme Court ruling has prevented the optional jail term being applied. Yet women continue to be arrested for 'brothel keeping' (working together for safety) and evicted and deported. Doesn't seem very equal to me.
According to Lansstyrelsen "As of 2010, the number of people engaged in street prostitution has been relatively constant". Also, the proportion of people who support the law decreased in 2011 to 65.5% (from 71% in 2008), although it went back up to 72% in 2014.
I could be that the drop didn't have a cause. Various cultural practices can become less popular just because they are less fashionable. There can be a drop then they can become more common again. Some might say the very existence of the law has a 'normative' effect on public attitudes, but why only after 2008? I have more to say about this here.
What lessons can be learned by countries who are considering adopting the Nordic model? I would say you would have to be fucking stupid to do that. Especially when you consider the official reports on the results of the Nordic model in Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic - our two comparable countries. Spend the money on helping women to exit instead of arresting men and women.
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